Political system is on the verge of huge changes

The startling results of the recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll highlight the depth of anger and frustration in the country at present. The figures show that, of those who expressed a preference, 17% of people would vote for Fianna Fáil, 28% for Fine Gael and 32% for Labour. It's the first time since the advent of such polls in 1982 that Labour has been the largest party - and it also represents a historic low for Fianna Fáil. The challenge, clearly, for Labour is not only to maintain this level of popularity, at a time when it will obviously come under sharp attack from other parties, but also to learn how to translate that vote share into seat share. The notion of Labour being the largest party in the State, after an election, remains highly improbable, considering the massive task it faces in both selecting sufficient extra candidates to contest seats, and to create vibrant grassroots organisations to promote these new candidates. But, equally it is clear that the electorate is seeking fresh solutions and new faces, and the letters LAB after a candidate's name may suddenly be worth a few extra percentage points. Fianna Fáil stand clearly annihilated and, in a truly democratic system, one would have to question their That the poll was taken before the full implications of the two reports into the banking crisis could be digested fully is surely another worrying factor for the party. On the other hand, Fianna Fáil will continue to hold tight to the belief that if it hangs on in there and the economy turns the corner, it may be able to benefit from an uplift in public morale in a year or two. Whether Brian Cowen will be in charge at that particular juncture is another question entirely. However, what seems to be saving the current Taoiseach is a fear that any heave against Cowen would precipitate a general election. Considering the current Taoiseach took over from Bertie Ahern mid-term, if the party were to appoint another leader from within, there would be huge pressure for an immediate election. The very backbenchers who would behind any such heave would be the ones likely to fare worst from any subsequent election. Fine Gael, as the apparent Government-in-waiting, will be bitterly disappointed with its showing. It has dropped below 30% for the first time in two years - and Enda Kenny's personal satisfaction ratings remain unpalatably low. At the time of writing, the party was engaged in another bout of internal faction fighting as to the future of its leader. Who knows the outcome? But if Fine Gael are not in the next Government, they may as well hang up their collective hats. In the coming days and weeks, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael face huge decisions, which could have a major bearing on their positioning and status in Irish society for the foreseeable future. It's all up for grabs in a very volatile and intriguing time in Irish politics.