Midlands to bear the brunt of dramatic future climate changes

The Midlands is to bear the brunt of dramatic climate change in the coming years, a new report has predicted. Within 70 years, winter rainfall have increased by over 20% in this region, with average summer temperatures up by over two degrees. The dramatic shifts will have major repercussions including a rise in the incidence of flooding and The Environmental Protection Agency research report released on Monday predicts that in 40 years time, summer and autumn will warm much faster than winter and spring, with a 'pronounced continental effect becoming apparent' especially in the Midlands. The report 'Climate Change - Refining the Impacts for Ireland' was prepared for the EPA by a team in NUI Maynooth and was released on Monday. The research predicts that the average summer and autumn temperatures will increase in the Midlands by between 1.4 and 1.8 degrees, leading to continental-type summers, while the mean temperature is predicted to increase by two degrees before 2100. However the warmer summers will be counter-balanced by wetter winters and springs. By 2050, rainfall will increase during winter and spring by over 10%, while by 2080 it will have increased by another 15%. 'These seasonal and spatial changes in precipitation are further enhanced by the 2080s... The largest percentage increases in winter precipitation, of up to 20%, are projected to occur in the midlands,' said the report. Other affects of climate change in the Midlands will lead to lengthier heatwaves, a substantial reduction in the number of frost days, lengthier rainfall events in winter and more intense downpours in summer are projected. These changes, if realised, are likely to have a large impact on agriculture and hydrology in Ireland. A case study within the report showed that dairy farming will be affected, due to changes in manure and slurry production because of rain and drainage. due to the greater amount of summer rain in the Midlands currently, the seasonal variations in soil moisture storage will not be as pronounced in the Inny catchment. 'We are looking at changes in extremes at both ends of the spectrum, more rain and more intense rainfall at one end and then heat waves and droughts at the others. However, considerable uncertainty still remains in several areas, particularly in relation to rainfall. A risk management type approach to adaptation will be required to take account of these uncertainties,' said Professor John Sweeney, the lead author of the report.