Better than Mark Lawrenson at forecasting Premiership results!

Forecasting models designed by two researchers have outperformed renowned soccer pundit Mark Lawrenson in forecasting the results of Premiership matches, the IT and Telecommunications Conference hosted by Athlone Institute of Technology (AIT) heard today.
Researchers, Elaine Kirwan and Dr Markus Hofmann, at Institute of Technology Blanchardstown created two predictive classification models, which analysed match data from ten seasons. They produced two models to forecast the results in the final 50 matches of the 2011/12 season and achieved 53% and 51% success rates, compared to 47% success for Mr Lawrenson.
Their classification model considered information such as shots on goal, number of home or away goals scored, the impact of yellow or red cards received, along with each teams’ recent home and away form in order to forecast the match outcome.
The paper is one of 16 being presented over two days at the 12th annual IT&T Conference. The theme of this year’s event is ‘Small Devices, Big Data, Real Challenges’, with sessions dedicated to networking, information analysis and management, text and data mining, and web and cloud technologies.
Other papers being presented include a speech analysis of the 2012 American presidential election, protecting organisational data confidentiality in the cloud and identifying future crimes given the socioeconomic profile of an area.
The IT&T conference provides postgraduate researchers with an early opportunity to engage with practitioners from academia and industry working in the areas of IT and telecommunications. A particular motivation for this year’s conference is to facilitate discussion between researchers, industry and third level institutions working to address the challenges of Big Data.
Head of the School of Engineering at AIT, Dr Austin Hanley, said: “Communications and software research is of strategic long-term interest to AIT. Its undergraduate, postgraduate and research strength is underpinned by a strong presence of indigenous and multinational industries in the region. The IT&T conference is an important vehicle to give expression to research activities in this domain and hosting it is a further demonstration of our commitment to it. Central to that research effort is dialogue between researchers both nationally and internationally. It is from such conferences that new ideas are fostered, encouraged and fuelled. AIT is delighted to be a part of it and honoured to host it.”
Dr Brian Lee, Director of the Software Research Institute at AIT, said: “Hosting the IT&T conference in AIT recognises the contributions of the research community in AIT to ICT research at a national level. IT&T research themes cover the spectrum of research activities within the SRI and provide a forum particularly for the postgraduate students to publish and disseminate their results as well as get to meet their peers in other colleges. The conference is also a networking opportunity for more senior researchers to meet with colleagues and to explore possible collaboration opportunities.”
 
The IT&T conference is sponsored by Ericsson, Institutes of Technology Ireland (IoTI) and AIT and is held at AIT today and tomorrow. Further information can be accessed online at www.ittconference.ie.