This model suggests one way in which virus could be contained by late June

An HSE modelling exercise of future trends in COVID-19 in Ireland has indicated the possibility of new cases of the virus falling to double-digit levels by end of June, if the current rate of transmission of the virus is maintained.

The model is one of a number published by the HSE, based on the level of the critical R0 number, which indicates the average number of people who will catch a disease from a contagious person.

Lockdowns, restrictions and social distancing are designed to lower the R0 number and therefore ‘flatten the curve’ of the growth of the virus.

The graph was included among a number of models published by the HSE today.

Yesterday, Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of NPHET Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the “We now estimate our R0 to be between 0.7 and 1.0, which means current restrictions are successfully suppressing the disease.”

The modelling exercise suggests that if the R0 is maintained at just 0.7 for the coming months, the number of new cases per day will drop to as low as 40 by mid-to-late June.

However, if an R0 of 1 is maintained, the number of new cases per day in mid to late June will still be close to 400.

An R0 rate of more than one would indicate a continued growth in cases.

The dots on the graph indicate the number of confirmed cases announced each day – which may be different to the number of new cases contracted each day.

Whether the R0 can be maintained at low levels if restrictions are lifted is unclear.